The aim of the study was to evaluate future hydrogen supply chains – from overseas production sites through seaports and inland infrastructure to industrial consumers in the Rhine-Ruhr region. The focus was on liquid hydrogen (LH₂) and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC).

Two transport routes – both technically feasible

The study examined import corridors from Bilbao (Spain) and Duqm (Oman). In addition to the production costs for green hydrogen, the researchers analyzed the entire value chain. This includes liquefaction or chemical binding, maritime transport, as well as storage, distribution, and reconversion inland. “All the necessary key technologies for both transport options (LH₂ and LOHC) have already been successfully demonstrated in international projects,” explains Dr.-Ing. Matthias Lehmkühler of Fraunhofer UMSICHT. “The decisive factor now is the speed at which these technologies can be scaled up for large-scale deployment.”

Cost perspective: Import solution competitive in the long term

The production costs of green hydrogen were estimated based on literature values for the two import corridors. Additional costs for storage, transport, liquefaction and chemical storage were determined based on published key figures. This results in hydrogen prices of 7.5 to 8.5 euros per kilogram at the Duisburg site for the year 2030. By 2050, these could drop to 3.5 to 6.5 euros per kilogram. This puts them 30 to 50 percent below the costs of domestic production.

A positive trend is also expected for transportation costs:

• LOHC: projected at approximately 3.0 €/kg
• LH₂: projected at approximately 2.5 €/kg (excluding production costs in each case)

Resilience through technological diversity and infrastructure

Another finding of the study: Neither of the two transport options clearly dominates – an advantage for security of supply.

• LH₂ offers high purity and density but requires specialized cryogenic infrastructure.
• LOHC utilizes existing tank storage facilities and transportation modes but requires energy-intensive reconversion.

The transport alternatives increase flexibility and reduce dependence on individual technologies or regions. Additionally, the corridor’s four-modal connectivity strengthens resilience: Inland waterways, rail, trucks and future pipelines (including GET H2 and the Delta-Rhine Corridor) enable redundant transport routes – which is important in the event of temporary outages of individual modes of transport.

Infrastructure under development – demand remains crucial

Hydrogen demand in the Rhine-Ruhr region is expected to rise to 870 to 1,170 metric metric tons by 2030 and to 3,870 to 5,370 metric metric tons by 2045. With a projected import rate of over 90% for 2045, the development of infrastructure is of particular importance. Against this backdrop, both the Port of Amsterdam and duisport are driving the development of hydrogen terminals, storage facilities and distribution networks, thereby kickstarting the necessary developments. In Amsterdam, operations are scheduled to begin in 2030 with initial import volumes of 50 to 200 metric tons per year. By 2045, this volume can be scaled up to as much as 1 million metric tons annually. However, the study also highlights a discrepancy: “Infrastructure development is on the right track. At the same time, however, many industrial customers are still hesitant – primarily due to costs, complexity, and perceived uncertainty,” according to Dr.-Ing. Sebastian Stießel of Fraunhofer UMSICHT.  

Market ramp-up requires cooperation and political support

According to the study, the biggest challenge is no longer the technology, but rather market activation. Reliable off-take agreements and clear investment signals along the entire supply chain are crucial. “The ramp-up will only succeed through close cooperation among all stakeholders – from producers to logistics companies to industrial customers,” emphasizes Lars Paschke of Fraunhofer UMSICHT.

In addition, targeted policy measures are necessary, including:

• Carbon contracts for difference
• Hydrogen auctions
• Operating subsidies (OPEX grants, i.e., grants for ongoing operating costs)
• Regulatory clarity and lead markets

These instruments could close the cost gap during the transition phase and accelerate investment.

Conclusion

The RE-Chain study shows that a resilient supply chain via the Spain/Oman–Amsterdam–Duisburg corridor is realistic and scalable. The conditions for a successful market ramp-up are in place. The key now is to stimulate demand.

 

FUNDING NOTICE

Funding for duisport – This project was partially funded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Industry, Climate Action and Energy of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia. Grant number: 64.65.24-00019.

 

Download the RE-Chain study